IMPACT SPORTS NEWS
Goings and Comings
What a great time of year! Baseball playoffs are heating up, this college football weekend is the most anticipated of the entire year with a plethora of great games and the NFL is just outstanding every weekend. These pages are about last week’s games, useful wagering information and upcoming situations. This week’s message is the same as last week’s GO CUBS………..
Knowledge is Power if not always correct.
Last week we told to too pay attention to a hot system of playing CFB Road Favorites of 1-6.5 points. As is the case of all things that are “white hot” they will come back towards the middle. Well 0-5 ATS is the asteroid hitting the earth. Before I give up on this system keep in mind the system is still a very solid 19-7 73%.
This week watch for: Northwestern, K-State, Mich. State, Virginia, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Oregon and Wyoming.
Winners Win and Losers Lose
Another area of research that Impact Sports investigates is how often do teams that win cover spreads and how often that teams lose fail to cover the number. Our research goes back twelve years to 1990. To quantify the information, teams need to cover as winners 80% or better and losers need to fail at least 80% of the time in their respective losses. What we have discovered is the select teams that cover the spread as winners are a respectable 43-30 58%. The real gem in this study is that teams that lose and fail to cover are a dreadful 41-8 ATS 83%. That is real opportunity when looking at selective losers. Impact Sports would be happy to send you a list of the Winners and Losers. Send us an email at rndsportz@cox.net.
Quick Hits…………
Texas Tech is averaging 617 yp. in their last three contests and had 8 TD passes against in-state rival Texas A&M…..Question: Did Michigan win a National Championship with or inspite of C. Lloyd Carr? After a poor special teams performance at Oregon, they travel to Iowa City and have one punt blocked, another partially and then go to a never in my lifetime “swinging gate” punt deal. Michigan punted nine times for a 35 yard average, while the Hawkeye’s nine punts averages 44 yards. Iowa picked up 9 yards of field position EVERYTIME Michigan punted.UNREAL…..The state of Oklahoma had a wonderful day on Saturday going 3-0 and outscoring the opposition 136-26, which included Tulsa’s upset of Hawaii…..S. Miss. was fortunate to win at Cincy as that were out first downed 20-8 and out gained 319-200….. BACKDOOR Cover: Virginia Tech had a comfortable 41-7 lead in the 3rd Quarter, but a 47-yard TD int. opened the backdoor for Rutgers to cover a +28.5 spot 48-22…..The Navy with their upset victory over previous unbeaten Air Force are in position to win the Commander-in Chief for the first time since 1980…. Here are the rushing totals of the three ACC losers (N.C. State, Clemson, North Carolina) 17 attempts = 6yards, 25=7, 29=10.
Team of the Weak
The Wolfpack of N.C.State has earned this week’s honor. C.Amato team was considered Top 20 material and a legitimate ACC champion. With 12 starters back including veteran QB Rivers this team looked relatively stocked. But with three road losses in three attempts, clearly there is trouble in Raleigh. With true freshman QB Ball of Georgia Tech still learning on the run, how does he throw for a career high 283 yards against N.C. State? The Wolfpack are looking very ordinary and look to be a strong Play Against road team the rest of the season.
Learning Curve
In College Football RF’s that are 14+ points are 13-3 ATS 81% this season. Keep an eye on Hawaii-16, Oklahoma -21, Colorado -20.5, Virginia Tech -28, Air Force -16.5 and Western Michigan -15. Keep in mind we believe that one of these teams is capable of losing the game outright this Saturday. Stay tuned.
We gave you this last week and 3 of the 5 lost outright as significant favorites. As the season progresses conference rivalries and hostilities rear their head, and ugly dogs that appear to have no chance jump up and bite solid favorites. This is why playing favorites can be a dicey situation. Do your homework.
NFL Notes
Play Against any 2-3 teams that were in the Playoffs last season. The gambling public still perceives this as a quality club when in fact they are struggling. In the ever evolving NFL, today the front page, tomorrow last years news.
Most recently 11-5 ATS 69%
Consider: Oakland- Pittsburgh- Cleveland- San Francisco as play against teams this week.
Green Bay had an excellent game against Seattle, but disturbing trends continue for the Pack. They still managed to surrender 343 yards to the Seahawks, including 128 yards rushing. The Pack is allowing 120 yards rushing, which like last year could be their downfall…..The Bengals had an outstanding opportunity to upset Buffalo but lost due in part to horrific punting. Six attempts for an average of 32 yards. OUCH! .....The Broncos completely outplayed the Chiefs with a 469-261 yard differential. But for some reason the Broncos still kicked to the “human joystick” Dante Hall who put an arrow thru their heart….. T. Maddux looks terrible…..WR J. Smith comes off 4-game suspension and catches 8 passes for 138 yards and helps lead the Jags to their first win and an easy cover….. Anything about Monday Night’s game would be silly. The pictures were worth a thousand words.
As of this writing there are five Road Favorites this weekend. To date they are winning at over 70 % against the number, which is incredible. Is this the week the tables turn?
One of our favorite stats and indicators in the NFL is rushing attempts. In the NFL if you rush the ball 25 times you will be in position to win. Week Five results:
SU record 8-1 ATS record 6-3 To Date SU 49-8 85% ATS 45-12 78%
How can you tell if a team is going to rush 25 or more times? Of course a variety of factors need to be assessed, but we recommend the following:
*Coach’s patience and commitment to running game
*History of running the ball
*Strength of offense line
*Weakness of defensive line
*Lead running back who can close game
LINE MOVEMENT
One feature that Impact Sports likes to follow is line movement early in the week. This is considered when the “sharps” look to take advantage of weak lines and help move them accordingly. Once posted, we review them later in the day on Tuesday and see what direction these guys are thinking. Last year, CFB was only 129-130 in early line movement, but the NFL was a profitable 36-25 ATS.
Last Week CFB 6-5
Season to Date 20-15
Last Week NFL 1-2
Season to Date 5-11
This Week’s Line Movement
TCU Open -1.5 Tuesday +1
Florida State Open -4.5 Tuesday -7
Colorado Open -8.5 Tuesday -6.5
Tennessee Open -1 Tuesday +2
Washington Open -19.5 Tuesday -17.5
Marshall Open -22.5 Tuesday -20.5
Toledo Open -29 Tuesday -27
Louis. Tech Open -16 Tuesday -15.5
S.J.State Open –9.5 Tuesday -7.5
No NFL
Surprising Spreads
Kansas State -2.5 over Okla.State K-State back seven lacks playmakers, which is great news for WR Woods.
Oklahoma -5.5 over Texas Sneaky suspicion that this could be watershed game for Longhorns.
Indy -5.5 over Carolina Monster flat spot for Colts who historically under-perform at home.
Falcons/Rams total 45 Teams are a combined 6-3 Over this season and defenses lend towards this going Over the Arch.
Goings and Comings
What a great time of year! Baseball playoffs are heating up, this college football weekend is the most anticipated of the entire year with a plethora of great games and the NFL is just outstanding every weekend. These pages are about last week’s games, useful wagering information and upcoming situations. This week’s message is the same as last week’s GO CUBS………..
Knowledge is Power if not always correct.
Last week we told to too pay attention to a hot system of playing CFB Road Favorites of 1-6.5 points. As is the case of all things that are “white hot” they will come back towards the middle. Well 0-5 ATS is the asteroid hitting the earth. Before I give up on this system keep in mind the system is still a very solid 19-7 73%.
This week watch for: Northwestern, K-State, Mich. State, Virginia, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Oregon and Wyoming.
Winners Win and Losers Lose
Another area of research that Impact Sports investigates is how often do teams that win cover spreads and how often that teams lose fail to cover the number. Our research goes back twelve years to 1990. To quantify the information, teams need to cover as winners 80% or better and losers need to fail at least 80% of the time in their respective losses. What we have discovered is the select teams that cover the spread as winners are a respectable 43-30 58%. The real gem in this study is that teams that lose and fail to cover are a dreadful 41-8 ATS 83%. That is real opportunity when looking at selective losers. Impact Sports would be happy to send you a list of the Winners and Losers. Send us an email at rndsportz@cox.net.
Quick Hits…………
Texas Tech is averaging 617 yp. in their last three contests and had 8 TD passes against in-state rival Texas A&M…..Question: Did Michigan win a National Championship with or inspite of C. Lloyd Carr? After a poor special teams performance at Oregon, they travel to Iowa City and have one punt blocked, another partially and then go to a never in my lifetime “swinging gate” punt deal. Michigan punted nine times for a 35 yard average, while the Hawkeye’s nine punts averages 44 yards. Iowa picked up 9 yards of field position EVERYTIME Michigan punted.UNREAL…..The state of Oklahoma had a wonderful day on Saturday going 3-0 and outscoring the opposition 136-26, which included Tulsa’s upset of Hawaii…..S. Miss. was fortunate to win at Cincy as that were out first downed 20-8 and out gained 319-200….. BACKDOOR Cover: Virginia Tech had a comfortable 41-7 lead in the 3rd Quarter, but a 47-yard TD int. opened the backdoor for Rutgers to cover a +28.5 spot 48-22…..The Navy with their upset victory over previous unbeaten Air Force are in position to win the Commander-in Chief for the first time since 1980…. Here are the rushing totals of the three ACC losers (N.C. State, Clemson, North Carolina) 17 attempts = 6yards, 25=7, 29=10.
Team of the Weak
The Wolfpack of N.C.State has earned this week’s honor. C.Amato team was considered Top 20 material and a legitimate ACC champion. With 12 starters back including veteran QB Rivers this team looked relatively stocked. But with three road losses in three attempts, clearly there is trouble in Raleigh. With true freshman QB Ball of Georgia Tech still learning on the run, how does he throw for a career high 283 yards against N.C. State? The Wolfpack are looking very ordinary and look to be a strong Play Against road team the rest of the season.
Learning Curve
In College Football RF’s that are 14+ points are 13-3 ATS 81% this season. Keep an eye on Hawaii-16, Oklahoma -21, Colorado -20.5, Virginia Tech -28, Air Force -16.5 and Western Michigan -15. Keep in mind we believe that one of these teams is capable of losing the game outright this Saturday. Stay tuned.
We gave you this last week and 3 of the 5 lost outright as significant favorites. As the season progresses conference rivalries and hostilities rear their head, and ugly dogs that appear to have no chance jump up and bite solid favorites. This is why playing favorites can be a dicey situation. Do your homework.
NFL Notes
Play Against any 2-3 teams that were in the Playoffs last season. The gambling public still perceives this as a quality club when in fact they are struggling. In the ever evolving NFL, today the front page, tomorrow last years news.
Most recently 11-5 ATS 69%
Consider: Oakland- Pittsburgh- Cleveland- San Francisco as play against teams this week.
Green Bay had an excellent game against Seattle, but disturbing trends continue for the Pack. They still managed to surrender 343 yards to the Seahawks, including 128 yards rushing. The Pack is allowing 120 yards rushing, which like last year could be their downfall…..The Bengals had an outstanding opportunity to upset Buffalo but lost due in part to horrific punting. Six attempts for an average of 32 yards. OUCH! .....The Broncos completely outplayed the Chiefs with a 469-261 yard differential. But for some reason the Broncos still kicked to the “human joystick” Dante Hall who put an arrow thru their heart….. T. Maddux looks terrible…..WR J. Smith comes off 4-game suspension and catches 8 passes for 138 yards and helps lead the Jags to their first win and an easy cover….. Anything about Monday Night’s game would be silly. The pictures were worth a thousand words.
As of this writing there are five Road Favorites this weekend. To date they are winning at over 70 % against the number, which is incredible. Is this the week the tables turn?
One of our favorite stats and indicators in the NFL is rushing attempts. In the NFL if you rush the ball 25 times you will be in position to win. Week Five results:
SU record 8-1 ATS record 6-3 To Date SU 49-8 85% ATS 45-12 78%
How can you tell if a team is going to rush 25 or more times? Of course a variety of factors need to be assessed, but we recommend the following:
*Coach’s patience and commitment to running game
*History of running the ball
*Strength of offense line
*Weakness of defensive line
*Lead running back who can close game
LINE MOVEMENT
One feature that Impact Sports likes to follow is line movement early in the week. This is considered when the “sharps” look to take advantage of weak lines and help move them accordingly. Once posted, we review them later in the day on Tuesday and see what direction these guys are thinking. Last year, CFB was only 129-130 in early line movement, but the NFL was a profitable 36-25 ATS.
Last Week CFB 6-5
Season to Date 20-15
Last Week NFL 1-2
Season to Date 5-11
This Week’s Line Movement
TCU Open -1.5 Tuesday +1
Florida State Open -4.5 Tuesday -7
Colorado Open -8.5 Tuesday -6.5
Tennessee Open -1 Tuesday +2
Washington Open -19.5 Tuesday -17.5
Marshall Open -22.5 Tuesday -20.5
Toledo Open -29 Tuesday -27
Louis. Tech Open -16 Tuesday -15.5
S.J.State Open –9.5 Tuesday -7.5
No NFL
Surprising Spreads
Kansas State -2.5 over Okla.State K-State back seven lacks playmakers, which is great news for WR Woods.
Oklahoma -5.5 over Texas Sneaky suspicion that this could be watershed game for Longhorns.
Indy -5.5 over Carolina Monster flat spot for Colts who historically under-perform at home.
Falcons/Rams total 45 Teams are a combined 6-3 Over this season and defenses lend towards this going Over the Arch.
